Herman Kahn: Ideologist of Military Strategy

How to govern military technology—which potential weapons should have priority in development, what should be the “mix” of weapons in the military arsenal—and how to relate military strategy to foreign policy have become awesome problems in the nuclear age. Since traditional military analysts are limited by pre-nuclear preconceptions and training, a new secular type has recently emerged to fill the gap: the system analyst. This new breed is composed of younger nonmilitary men with abstract research experience. Adept at mathematical formulations, they particularly lean on the theory of games to structure and compute conflict situations and their impassive outcomes. They are
“cool,” hard-headed, and unemotional as they contemplate the possibilities of 200 million deaths in wartime. Uncommitted to any narrow military policy, they operate from the premise that any unexamined strategy yearns for an imaginative “scenario.”

They wield considerable influence in Washington today. Brilliant, imaginative, and inventive where others are confused or fearful, their logical analyses have appealed to the new enthusiasts in the political and military Establishment. Recent speeches of President Kennedy and the orientation of his policy often seem heavily influenced by the strategic analysts’ ideas. So much so that today, one feels, it is impossible to change American foreign or military policy without first challenging the postulates of Deterrence theory that have been advanced so successfully by the scientific strategist.

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