Among all the uncertainties of current politics in America, one event—I think—is certain. In the elections of 1986 the Democrats will score a victory: they will increase their majority in the House of Representatives and will capture the Senate.
The seers will see significance in this. Some who measure mass moods will discover a “swing to the left”; others will attribute the result to a Democratic shift to the right. Analysts who seek more specific explanations will point to some Reagan gaffe, a recession (if there is one), the leadership of Tip O’Neill, a surge of political action by unions, a backlash against the Moral Majority, an uprising of women, the skills of the new chair of the Democratic National Committee, and so on....
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